When people think of Santa Monica, images of sun-soaked beaches, the iconic pier, and leisurely strolls along the Pacific Coast Highway often come to mind. It’s a city synonymous with surf, sand, and a laid-back California lifestyle. Yet, bunkered within this seaside haven is an institution far removed from the carefree spirit of the shore: RAND Corporation, one of the world’s most influential think tanks, with deep ties to the Department of Defense. While tourists flock to the hot sands and the 3rd Street Promenade, behind the walls of RAND’s headquarters, some of the nation’s brightest minds have quietly shaped U.S. policy and technology for decades.

The RAND Corporation, originally an acronym for “Research ANd Development,” is a think tank that has had a profound impact on policy and decision-making in various fields, including national security, science, technology, and social policy.

RAND emerged from the devastation of World War II, inspired by the success of the Manhattan Project, a $2 billion effort that produced the first atomic bomb. Seeing this achievement, five-star Air Force General Henry “Hap” Arnold recognized the need for a group of brilliant minds to keep America at the forefront of technological innovation. In 1946, Arnold assembled a small team of scientists with $10 million in funding to create RAND, short for Research and Development. He persuaded a family friend, aircraft mogul Donald Douglas, to host the project at his factory in Santa Monica.

Within months, RAND captured the attention of academics, politicians, and military leaders with its groundbreaking report, “Preliminary Design of an Experimental World-Circling Spaceship.” At a time when rocket science was in its infancy, the think tank’s vision of an orbiting space station was revolutionary. The report not only detailed the type of fuel needed and the feasibility of constructing the station but also highlighted its potential to revolutionize weather forecasting, long-distance communication, and most crucially, its ability to intimidate America’s adversaries. If America could launch a satellite into space, what else might it achieve?

Although President Truman decided against pursuing the space station, the military quickly embraced RAND. Thanks to Hap Arnold’s connections, the Air Force became RAND’s primary contractor, and the think tank began consulting on a wide range of projects, from propeller turbines to missile defense systems. The influx of contracts soon overwhelmed RAND, prompting the need to hire hundreds of additional researchers. In its recruitment ads, RAND proudly highlighted its intellectual pedigree, even drawing a direct line from its president, Frank Collbohm, to Isaac Newton. Whether or not that claim held water, the institute rapidly earned a reputation as the go-to place for envisioning innovative strategies to wage wars and deter adversaries.

In fact, in 1960s the Soviet newspaper Pravda nicknamed RAND “the academy of science and death and destruction.” American media outlets preferred to call them the “wizards of Armageddon.” The Atlantic called them “the paramilitary academy of United States strategic thinking”.

 

But where is RAND located? When RAND was first established in 1946, it was housed in a building provided by Donald Douglas at his aircraft factory in Santa Monica. However, as RAND grew, it eventually moved to its own dedicated headquarters.

In 1953, RAND moved to a new building on a site provided by the city of Santa Monica. This building was designed specifically for RAND’s needs and became a recognizable landmark near the beach. In 2004, RAND moved again to a newly constructed headquarters in Santa Monica, located at 1776 Main Street. This modern facility was designed to better accommodate RAND’s evolving research activities and staff. So while RAND has always been in Santa Monica, it has moved to different buildings over the years.

During the early years, RAND’s work was heavily focused on military and defense issues, reflecting the geopolitical climate of the Cold War. One of RAND’s most significant early contributions was the development of game theory and its application to military strategy. Pioneers like John Nash, who would later win the Nobel Prize in Economics, conducted seminal work at RAND during this period.

RAND’s analysts played a crucial role in the development of nuclear strategy, including the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD). The think tank’s work on systems analysis, a method for evaluating complex systems, became a cornerstone of U.S. defense planning. RAND’s analysts developed strategies for deterrence, nuclear war scenarios, and the implications of various levels of nuclear arsenals.

“This was a very smart bunch,” said Ellsberg, just before his death on June 16, 2023. “The smartest group of people I ever did associate with. It turns out, by the way, intelligence is not a very good guarantee of wisdom.”

Daniel Ellsberg

Two key figures at the time, Albert Wohlstetter and Herman Kahn, were both pivotal figures at the RAND Corporation, where they contributed significantly to the development of U.S. nuclear strategy during the Cold War. Wohlstetter, known for his rigorous and analytical approach, emphasized the importance of maintaining a credible deterrent to Soviet aggression, which he articulated in his influential work, “The Delicate Balance of Terror.” Herman Kahn, another RAND was renowned for his work on nuclear warfare scenarios and is often credited with popularizing the concept of “mutual assured destruction” (MAD).

Their paths intersected with Daniel Ellsberg, who also worked at RAND as an analyst. Ellsberg, who later became famous for leaking the Pentagon Papers, was influenced by both Wohlstetter’s strategic insights and Kahn’s scenarios, but the resulting plans for how America would manage a nuclear war with the Russians terrified Ellsberg. As he recounted in the Netflix Documentary Turning Point, Ellsberg revealed that serious plans at RAND estimated a nuclear war with Russia and China could result in 600 million casualties, highlighting the catastrophic consequences that were considered in Cold War strategic planning. These revelations, along with his evolving moral stance, eventually led Ellsberg to become a vocal critic of U.S. military policies.

“This was a very smart bunch,” said Ellsberg, before his death on June 16, 2023. “The smartest group of people I ever did associate with. It turns out, by the way, intelligence is not a very good guarantee of wisdom.”

By the 1960s, RAND began to diversify its research agenda. The think tank started to tackle a wider array of issues, including healthcare, education, and social policy. In 1968, RAND established the Health Insurance Experiment, a landmark study that explored the effects of different levels of health insurance coverage on medical spending and health outcomes. This study had a lasting impact on health policy and remains one of the largest and most comprehensive studies of its kind.

Although Silicon Valley is given most of the credit, RAND also contributed to the development of the internet. In the 1960s, RAND researchers, including Paul Baran, were instrumental in developing the concept of packet-switching networks, which later became a fundamental technology underlying the internet. The key idea (which Baran worked on with others) was to develop a communication system that could withstand potential disruptions, such as those caused by a nuclear attack. His concept of breaking data into small packets and routing them through a decentralized network was groundbreaking, ensuring that information could still be transmitted even if parts of the network were compromised.

In the 1980s and 1990s, RAND continued to expand its global influence. The organization opened offices in Europe and started collaborating with international governments and institutions. RAND’s research began to encompass global security, international development, and global health issues. RAND also pioneered the study of terrorism in the 1970s, well before the United Nations had even defined the term. Today, the RAND Terrorism Chronology Database, tracking all terrorist acts since 1968, is a crucial resource for the military and government.

One notable area of RAND’s recent work is in the field of education. RAND has conducted extensive research on educational policies and practices, including studies on school choice, teacher effectiveness, and the impacts of educational technology.

Despite its many contributions, RAND has faced criticisms and challenges. Some have argued that the think tank’s close ties to the military and government agencies may bias its research. Others have pointed out that, like any large organization, RAND’s influence can sometimes lead to the prioritization of certain agendas over others.

One of RAND’s more controversial recent activities involved its research on U.S. drone warfare. Critics have raised concerns that RAND’s analyses have sometimes downplayed the ethical and civilian impact of drone strikes, focusing instead on the strategic advantages for the U.S. military. This has sparked debates about whether RAND’s close ties to the Department of Defense might influence the objectivity of its findings, particularly in areas where the moral and humanitarian implications are significant.

As of the most recent data, RAND Corporation employs approximately 1,950 people, including researchers, analysts, and support staff. The think tank operates with an annual budget of around $390 million, funding a wide array of research projects across various disciplines, including national security, health, education, and more. These figures can fluctuate based on the specific projects and funding sources in any given year.

Despite concerns about its influence, the RAND Corporation has remained a significant player in policy research. Its ability to adapt and broaden its focus has helped it stay relevant over the years. RAND’s work continues to inform policies that affect many aspects of public life, reflecting the ongoing role of independent research in policy-making.

So the next time you take a trip to the beach, take a moment to consider that just a short distance from the waves, some of the nation’s most critical and controversial policy decisions are being shaped at RAND’s headquarters in Santa Monica.